Game 10 Previews

There are some massive flaws in RPI especially when it comes to soccer.

The vague strength of schedule combined with an unbalanced schedule combined with overweighting one victory in a very short season results in certain teams being rewarded when they should not.

Let's just ignore RPI for now. There are 8 teams deserving of an NCAA bid. 2 teams think they are in the running and maybe they will earn bids.

If so, those bids will not be deserved.

Two teams in particular should make the grade. They are Rutgers and Washington. In addition to the top 6 in the conference, those two are more than deserving of making the tournament.

Unlike the teams that are currently in line for bids - Wisconsin and Minnesota. Rutgers and Washington are good enough to make the round of 16.

If Wisconsin and Minnesota go to the NCAA they will likely be one and done. Who wants to see that?

Minnesota blatantly gamed the RPI non conference part of the schedule. I recall wondering why some deemed the Gophers to have a tough schedule. Look at the current RPI of the teams they faced and you will see that supposed tough schedule was mostly made up of cup cakes.

Wisconsin similarly gamed the system. Both teams don't pass the eye test in terms of how they play. The street thug mentality has certainly generated results, but lacks in quality.

You know what I would rather see. Of course fans of Wisconsin and Minnesota will disagree.

Before we truly dive into the NCAA speculation, there are still 2 games to play in conference. Both Wisconsin and Minnesota are favored to make the Big 10 tournament, but there is more than a 25% probability that both miss.

I'm rooting for Illinois. The Gophers luck boxed themselves a very late penalty to steal a win early in the conference schedule. Illinois had other misfortune against other teams too.

Purdue is another team to root for. If things play out and both Illinois and Purdue beat out Minnesota and Wisconsin, the NCAA discussion should be for the better.

I want quality in the final tournament period.

With that here is how I see Sunday playing out:

Maryland @ Wisconsin

Maryland outplayed Minnesota until an injury followed by a last second goal before the half stole the victory for the Gophers. Wisconsin could lose this game, but I suspect they figure out a way to get the win, 1-0.

Indiana @ Minnesota

On the scoresheet Minnesota is considered the better team and favorite. The reality is that Indiana is the better team. For whatever reason, Indiana can't get the result. They play spoiler and steal a win from Minnesota 2-1.

Purdue @ Michigan

Michigan has already packed it in for the season. Purdue needs this game and gets the win, 2-0.

Illinois @ Rutgers

This game will prove the quality of Illinois. On the road though, the best they can do is get a 1-1 draw.

Northwestern @ Michigan State

Northwestern is similar to Indiana in quality, but they can't buy a result. The Spartans roll in pursuit of a higher NCAA seed 2-0

Oregon @ Iowa

Iowa is in line for a 1 seed. They make the case with another impressive win here against a tougher than you think Oregon 2-0

Washington @ Nebraska

Nebraska in rebuilding after its Cinderella 2023 campaign. Washington is a quality squad that has gotten the results. They get another one here, 2-1

Ohio State @ UCLA

UCLA is the class of the conference. They win here 2-0 against the entitled Boilermakers.

Penn State @ USC

Just how good is USC? Not as good as record and RPI suggest. Penn State gets the win here 2-1

I will update my rankings on Monday. Then comes the fun. Look for my thoughts on who truly deserve the 34 at large bids in the NCAA. There will be plenty of surprises and points of discussion and disagreement :)

JD